The international shipping community has been setting decarbonisation targets to keep in line with global climate ambitions since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO), for example, has declared aggressive targets, with a 100 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or thereabouts compared to the base year (2008).
To achieve this, the industry has been evaluating various technological and operational solutions. One key solution is to substantially increase the use of biofuels derived from biomass. The potential for biofuels to play a role in the marine sector comes down to availability, an umbrella term that encompasses the annual global inventory of biological feedstocks, the definition of sustainability of these feedstocks, their economic recoverability, compatibility with conversion processes, and competition for a limited resource from other industrial and transport sectors.
To fully understand the potential of biofuels to decarbonise the transport sector, the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI) recently collaborated with Argus Media to outline the global availability of biomass for marine fuel and estimate global annual volumes suitable for use in the sector up to 2050. This study was conducted to update the results of the first research in 2021 and reflect changes in the drivers of biomass availability for marine use, including legislation, competing demand assumptions and additional feedstocks.
Although the study was undertaken to assess global biomass availability, the methodologies used to assess feedstock availability and biofuel demand mainly reflect those included in European legislation, as these were considered to be the most progressive. This was to ensure that the standards and requirements selected for the study would remain applicable in the different regions in the medium and long term. For example, energy crops in this study only include non-food crops grown on severely degraded land, as defined by the European Commission, whereas sustainable energy crops would be acceptable under the IMO framework.
This study initially assessed global biomass availability in all key categories, including woody biomass, agricultural biomass (including intermediate and energy crops) and bio-waste. The availability of sustainable biomass for biofuel production was then determined by applying various filters to the initial figures, including environmental, social and geographical filters.
Finally, competing uses of solid biomass feedstocks, such as non-energy (e.g. animal feed and building materials) and energy (e.g. domestic cooking and heat and power generation), were assessed before finalising the availability of biomass for marine fuels.
According to the study, the global availability of sustainable biomass suitable for biofuel use according to legislative specifications is currently around 1.8 billion tonnes (2025) and is expected to increase to 3.3 billion tonnes by 2050. Considering that the aviation and road transport sectors are expected to need only 200 million tonnes of biomass by 2050, there is a significant volume of biomass available for the marine sector.
However, it is important to note that this study primarily assesses biomass availability without detailed consideration of the associated economic viability along the value chain, from feedstock collection to the supply of final products to the market, all of which is determined by a variety of factors, including geography, technological advances (e.g. development of biomass-to-liquid pathways) and global demand for renewable fuels. As the market and technology matures, economic viability is likely to change and ultimately impact on the availability of biomass for the marine sector.
Source: Oil and Gas Climate Initiative